Similar to the West, the central and southern portions of the High Plains remain entrenched in moderate to exceptional drought.
This is based on a relatively warm and dry remainder of September and consistent with the seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks.įorecast confidence is moderate to high for the Western and Southern regions. Drought persistence is forecast for the remainder of the Westwith possible drought development over parts of New Mexico.ĭespite the heavy rainfall during late August across the south-central U.S., development is expected by the end of December across much of Texas.
Therefore, drought removal and improvement is favored across parts of Washington and Oregon, and coastal northern California. Beyond week-2, all the seasonal outlook favors either equal chances or above normal precipitation for the Pacific Northwest, along with a transition to a wetter climatology and favorable time of year for soil moisture recharge later this fall. Over the next two weeks, WPC and CPC forecasts indicate a wet pattern across parts of the interior western CONUS. Seasonable dryness prevailed across the remainder of California and Oregon, resulting in little change to the drought depiction. In contrast, abnormal dryness coupled with periods of extreme heat across parts of Oklahoma resulted in drought intensification. As is typical during the monsoon season, the heaviest convective thunderstorms resulted in flash flooding and brought drought relief to much of Texas and Louisiana, parts of Arkansas, Mississippi and Tennessee. The Southwest Monsoon has been highly active this Summer, resulting in drought reductions across portions of the Four Corners states, southwestern Arizona and adjacent California, and much of the Southern Plains. Therefore, temperature and precipitation composites from historical La Niña episodes during OND were also considered.ĭrought conditions remain prevalent across the Western and Southern climate regions of the CONUS, with nearly 68% of the Western Region and 59 percent of the Southern Region experiencing moderate drought or worse as of the 30 August 2022 USDM. La Niña conditions are present at the start of the OND season, with strongly enhanced chances that La Niña will persist through the autumn and winter months. Drought Monitor (USDM) valid on Septemwas used for initial drought conditions. Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO) included the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for October and October-November-December (OND), various short- and medium-range forecasts and models such as the 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) totals from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC extended-range forecasts (ERFs), dynamical models at the monthly and seasonal time scales, climatology for the SON season, and initial conditions such as soil moisture. HOME > Expert Assessments > Drought Information > Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussionĭiscussion for the Seasonal Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center: Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion Home
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